Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 25,305 crore from domestic markets since September. FPIs were net sellers in the first two months of 2023, but from March to August, they purchased equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion. This selling trend has caused the National Stock Exchange Nifty Index to decline by 3.2 per cent from its September highs. FPI selling initially began in September as profit-taking but intensified due to rising US bond yields and uncertainty regarding the rate hike trajectory.
Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun N Murti says crude oil prices may touch $200 in the next two years.
"Under different scenarios, we see the impact of higher crude prices ranging from $25 billion to a maximum of $50 billion on the oil import bill. The increase in the oil import bill will also affect the current account deficit," economic affairs secretary S C Garg said in a conference on Friday.
Former White House trade advisor Peter Navarro accuses India of being an 'oil money laundromat' for Russia, alleging that India's oil purchases are funding Putin's war in Ukraine. The accusations come amid existing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the US.
'Everybody in America loses because of what India is doing.'
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Ministry to propose a new subsidy mechanism to cap upstream firms' share.
The comments come ahead of Trump's high-profile meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Anchorage, Alaska.
Diesel price on Friday was hiked by 20 paise per litre - the first increase in rates in over two months - as international oil prices neared their highest since 2018. Price of diesel was hiked to Rs 88.82 per litre in Delhi and to Rs 96.41 in Mumbai, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Petrol price was not changed. It costs Rs 101.19 a litre in Delhi and Rs 107.26 in Mumbai.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Wednesday expressed concerns over rising crude prices which soared to two-year high of $ 102 a barrel in Asian markets.
India is 80 per cent import dependent to meet its oil needs.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
India's import of discounted crude oil from the Russian Federation hit an all-time high in May, with state-run refiner IOC becoming the biggest importer of Russian oil, relegating Reliance Industries to the second place, trade and shipping data show. Indian imports of Russian oil, accounting for over 46 per cent of its total crude oil imports in May, have grown after strong backing by New Delhi, with state-run refiners powering imports of discounted crude. Discounts on Russian oil average around $10 a barrel, said an official from a state-run refiner. IOC's May purchases rose by 64 per cent on the month, and accounted for half of its total crude imports last month, ship tracking data show.
The government will cut petrol and diesel prices when there is a sustained drop in global crude oil prices, Petroleum Minister Murli Deora said on Thursday.
Rather than complaining about the rise in petrol prices, Aditya Prasad suggests some really simple steps to deal with it.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.
India's major imports from the US include crude oil and petroleum products, gold and jewellery, plastics, aircraft, and electrical machinery and components. The key exports to the US comprise pharmaceuticals and biologicals, telecom equipment, precious and semi-precious stones, petroleum products, gold and precious metal jewellery, and ready-made garments.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Titan, Eternal, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Hindustan Unilever were among the biggest laggards. Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints and Tech Mahindra were the gainers.
The outgo for major subsides, is the highest in the first quarter.
While stable raw materials prices have spelt relief for most FMCG companies, they are still having a tough time in defining the future pricing strategy. Most have indicated that input costs have hit their margins, while others maintained that if inflation continued unabated, there would be a further correction in prices. Many FMCG companies have either raised prices or reduced the size of their products to combat the rise in farm commodity prices and packaging costs.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
India to urge OPEC to hike oil production
Despite a massive decline in crude oil prices since 2012 -- Modi has been prime minister in six of these eight years -- petrol in Delhi has become 10 per cent costlier and diesel 97 per cent, as of July 2.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
A price reduction may be considered if crude oil falls to $61 per barrel, he said. The basket of crude oil India buys was at this year's lowest of $68.81 per barrel. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are currently losing about Rs 280 crore (Rs 2.8 billion) per day on sale of petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene as government has not allowed them to align retail prices with cost of production.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Upstream firms pay for a portion of fuel subsidies by extending discounts on crude oil they sell to refiners who are forced by the government to sell diesel and cooking fuel at rates lower than cost of production.
Lower crude prices mean less government outlay for India,
Government earlier this month cut petrol price by Rs 5 a litre and diesel by Rs 2 per litre as crude oil prices dipped from an all-time high of $147 a barrel in July to under $45 a barrel. Even after the price cut, public sector oil firms were making a profit of Rs 9.98 on sale of every litre of petrol and Rs 1.03 per litre on diesel.
Only Hindustan Unilever and Nestl bucked the trend.
Oil prices fell after the US Senate rejected a $14bn bail-out plan for the carmakers' sector, a move that weighed heavily on sentiment towards commodities.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
Research and ratings agencies like Icra and Moody's have said the CAD in 2018-19 would be much higher than 2017-18
Jet fuel or ATF price on Wednesday was cut by almost 6 per cent after four rounds of monthly increases since July, while commercial cooking gas (LPG) rates were raised by a steep Rs 101.5 per 19-kg cylinder in line with international benchmarks. However, the price of domestic LPG - used in household kitchens for cooking purposes - remained unchanged at Rs 903 per 14.2-kg cylinder. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price was cut by Rs 6,854.25, or 5.79 per cent, in the national capital to Rs 111,344.92 per kl from Rs 118,199.17, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers.
Lower crude oil prices are expected to bring down jet fuel rates by 10 per cent in September, but passengers are unlikely to get the benefit as airlines are reluctant to reduce their fares.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started winding down its short position in the dollar forward book, after a gap of seven months, on the back of a softening dollar, while infusing funds via open market operations (OMOs) to counter the resulting liquidity drain.
Even as the Group of Seven (G7) price cap on Russian crude oil enters into force as of December 5, India has been assured it will continue to receive the existing deep discounts on Russian oil, for the time being, informed officials. "We have been assured by our Russian partners of uninterrupted crude supplies at the existing rates for the time being. "There were a lot of reports of changes in (India's) buying patterns after the global price cap took hold.
A realistic approach towards tax and stock taking is necessary, rather than the old narrative of bringing all petroleum products under GST and playing the blame-the-state game.
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