The government has brought back the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil after international prices firmed up while the levy on export of diesel has been cut to nil, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is now Rs 6,400 per tonne with effect from Wednesday, the order dated April 18 said. At the last revision on April 4, windfall tax on domestically produced crude oil was cut to nil as international oil prices dipped below $75 per barrel.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries
India's purchase of Russian oil has risen to 2 million barrels per day in August, as refiners continue to prioritise economic considerations in their sourcing decisions. As much as 38 per cent out of an estimated 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in the first half of August came from Russia, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
Rising oil prices, sharp slowdown in mutual fund inflows and steep valuations remain the key risks for Indian investors going ahead.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The price of crude oil has surged past $120 a barrel. Supply concerns from Opec members Nigeria and Iran as well as a weaker dollar pushed US crude prices up by $4 to $120.36 before closing at $119.97 on Monday.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
From February to mid-March, oil prices receded rapidly.
The government has cut windfall gains tax on domestically-produced crude oil to nil while continuing the rate at zero on the export of diesel and ATF. The government has slashed the special additional excise duty (SAED) on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) to nil from Rs 4,100 per tonne with effect from Tuesday, an official order dated May 15 said. This is the second time that the levy, which was introduced in July last year in the form of a cess to tax supernormal gains of oil producers and fuel exporters, has been cut to nil for domestically-produced oil.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Noting that the country could 'well experience the effects of an oil-price shock,' Deloitte said that political instability in West Asia and a payment crisis with Iran are causes for concern.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
'I have no problems with the finance ministry or with state governments treating petrol pump prices as the last resort for meeting their ambitious spending targets with very limited revenue resources.' 'But let's do away with this smokescreen of free pricing of petrol and diesel and go back to administered pricing regime,' says Dr Sudhir Bisht.
As crude oil prices set new records, the government-owned oil companies are working on a multi-pronged strategy to cut costs and stave off an impending crises. IOC, which is the country's largest company by sales, is cutting inventories, processing more sour crude oil which is cheaper and increasing refinery utilisation.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The clock on the ceasefire is running out. But everyone's already whispering about round two, possibly as soon as this weekend.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
To meet liquidity pressure because of advance tax outflows this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a measured approach with its latest announcement of open-market operations (OMOs), worth Rs 1 trillion.
Analysts are enthused by BPCL's upstream foray and have re-rated the stock in the past couple of years.
The government on Friday hiked customs duty on crude and refined sunflower oil to 20 per cent and 32.5 per cent, respectively. According to a finance ministry notification, the basic customs duty on crude palm, soybean and sunflower seed oil has been increased from nil to 20 per cent.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
India's top oil and gas producer ONGC on Friday reported a tripling of net profit in the June quarter as it earned record prices before the government slapped a tax on windfall profits arising from a global rally in energy rates. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) standalone net profit at Rs 15,205.85 crore, or Rs 12.09 per share, in April-June, compared to Rs 4,334.75 crore, or Rs 3.45 a share, in the same period a year back, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. Sequentially, the profit was higher than the Rs 8,859.54 crore net profit of January-March.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Trading activity of foreign investors and crude oil prices would also remain in the limelight during the week, experts noted. "This week brings a series of important economic data releases from India and the United States, which are likely to influence market sentiment and central bank outlooks.
The companies' underrecoveries stood at a whopping Rs 1,39,869 crore last financial year. Of that, Rs 62,837 crore was accounted for by diesel alone.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Friday due to weak trends in global markets and soaring crude oil prices. Foreign fund outflows also weighed on investor sentiments amid strengthening US bond yields which are nearing 5 per cent for the first time since 2007. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 231.62 points or 0.35 per cent to settle at 65,397.62.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
As crude oil prices rose sharply, private companies like Essar Oil and Reliance Industries closed their retail outlets as they found it difficult to compete with state-owned oil companies, which were selling fuel below the production cost with support from the government. While Essar Oil has drawn up plans to re-open its retail outlets, Reliance Industries has decided not to go ahead with the retail plan
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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